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Jan 12, 2017 at 15:48 comment added FumbleFingers My guess is the average native speaker won't have encountered this pencil out usage before, but presented with the example text they'd probably figure out the intended sense. Using exactly the logic you sketch out above (doing things in pencil is "tentative", pencil in is well-established, and we set out, sketch out, work out, rough out, draw out,... possible future plans).
Jan 12, 2017 at 11:23 history answered user8719 CC BY-SA 3.0