Every sentences has a difference meaning expect must.
Here are the rules:
It can rain
This expresses what the speaker believes is a general truth or known fact, or a strong possibility.
It could/may rain
This does not express a general truth. The speaker is only expressing a weak possibility.
It must rain
This is so strange and incorrect, You can't oblige the sky to rain.
It might rain
It expresses a weaker probability, there is more reserve or doubt on the part of the speaker
In this case, I think It might rain and It may rain are the best way and most polite.
can is generally used to skills, ability and things safe (e.g. He shot to me, I can to die).