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Knew you'd like it.

Reply : How would you know I liked it?

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How did you know I'd like it?

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How did you know I'd like it?

This says "You knew." "But how?"

How would you know I liked it?

Consider a common expression "How would you know?" It means "Probably you don't know".

The word "would" indicates the facts are conditional or uncertain. Since "would" has multiple definitions, you could interpret it with varying degrees of uncertainty, depending on the situation and the tone of voice.

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