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He hadn't arrived yet. Not surprising/surprisingly. It was too early.

I think it can go both ways?

Maybe the sentence could mean:

Not surprisingly, he hadn't arrived yet.

Or:

He hadn't arrived yet. Which wasn't surprising.

Or maybe I'm wrong and only one option is correct? If so, which?

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It isn't really a sentence, but it could represent casual spoken English (or interior monologue). As "bad grammar" there is some flexibility, but "Not surprisingly" is the best "bad grammar".

For good grammar of formal English, you would need to incorporate this into a sentence, and then you would probably want the adverb.

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  • Either of your two versions, making a proper sentence, would work. (The second would be better as a single sentence with a comma in the middle.) – Kate Bunting Feb 17 at 16:27

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