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We have your house surrounded. You can't escape. So what happens/is going to happen/will happen is one of two things. Either you come out here with your hands up or we're going to come in there and drag you out ourselves.

What is the natural way to phrase this?

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All three are OK. I prefer "will happen". I think "is going to happen" is clumsy. Just plain "happens" is not quite grammatical, but it's what a tough cop might say, particularly in a novel or film.

The second sentence might then say "we come in there ..." rather than "we're going to come in there ...".

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