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Do they mean the same? Is one more correct/natural than the other?

Example sentence:

Did he have missed calls from Mary? He should probably not check/probably shouldn't check.

I tried searching trends in Google Ngrams, but I couldn't get any results.

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    You got no results because you used too many words. The search works better if you leave out "check." Commented Aug 26, 2021 at 14:42
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    He probably shouldn't go out tonight. versus He should probably not go out tonight. mean the same exact thing. Both are grammatical. But the contraction would probably not be written in a formal document.
    – Lambie
    Commented Aug 26, 2021 at 15:00
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    The nGram viewer conflates "should not" with "shouldn't". "Probably shouldn't" is the most natural. "Probably should not" is less natural.
    – gotube
    Commented Aug 26, 2021 at 17:37

1 Answer 1

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Both are fine. "probably shouldn't" is more frequent.

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