I thought you would have picked him up from school.
I had thought you would have picked him from school.
In the first case "thought" verb on the timeline comes after the "picking" verb.
In the second case "thought" verb on the timeline comes before the "picking" verb.
Am I correct with this logic? If I am, then why do native speakers use these two sentences interchangeably?
Context:
Someone's kid was supposed to be picked from the school at 1 p.m. The mother at 2 p.m. angrily scolds her husband for being careless for not picking his/her son up from school.
If she used (2) then that would mean "thought" verb came before before 1 p.m., expecting her husband to pick his son up later.
If she used (1) then that would mean "thought" verb came after 1 p.m., let's say 1:30 p.m. expecting her husband to have already picked up her son.
Am I correct with this line of reasoning?