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Are you coming with us tomorrow to the beach?

Intended answer is: "No. I prefer going to the mountain."

  1. I'm afraid I'll be going to the mountain.
  2. I'm afraid I will go to the mountain.
  3. I'm afraid I'm going to the mountain

I would use 1. Right? What about 2. and 3.?

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I would find (3) the most natural - or, more explicitly

I'm afraid I've arranged to go to the mountains with [person/group].

(We use mountain to refer to a particular one, but mountains to mean an area of mountain scenery.)

I'm afraid I will [verb] sounds as though you are literally afraid that you will end up doing something unpleasant.

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