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My conclusion from ell.stackexchange.com:

(1) It's raining. This is why nobody is sunbathing now. — natural
(2) It's raining. That is why nobody is sunbathing now. — natural
The choice of "this" or "that" depends on whether raining is understood as figuratively close or distant from the speaker.

To understand it better, I came up with a couple examples. Let the speaker saying them be in Berlin:
(3) It's raining in Paris. This is why nobody is sunbathing there now. — I think "this" can't be used here because though the situation is happening now, it's happening far far away from the speaker (because there's a long distance between Berlin and Paris).
(4) It's raining in Paris. That is why nobody is sunbathing there now. — I think "that" is natural here.

Is my understanding right?
If not, then why not?

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    'This' refers to something just mentioned. it does not matter whether the thing mentioned is happening in the next room or on Mars.
    – Michael Harvey
    Commented Oct 30 at 21:24
  • Insufficient context is available either to justfiy or invalidate "this". I'm going to vote to close for lack of sufficient detail. And "figuratively close" is a very inadequate shorthand explanation. One could write a dissertation on the deixis of "this" and "that" -- there are probably many already.
    – TimR
    Commented Oct 30 at 21:30
  • "I just noticed the tack in the sole of my shoe. That's why my toe has been hurting!"
    – TimR
    Commented Oct 30 at 21:35
  • If someone called on phone and gave you the information use "that". If you are watching a live telecast of the beach or if you have a villa in Paris near the beach with live viewing CCTV, only then,you can use "this". That is why" can be used in any situation.
    – James Mathai
    Commented Oct 30 at 21:55
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    'This' can be used. Your understanding is not correct. See the answer by @Foogod.
    – Michael Harvey
    Commented Oct 30 at 23:04

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"This" or "That" in these sentences is not referring to the rain itself ("raining"). They are referring to the previous statement or fact which was said ("It's raining in Paris").

A fact does not have physical location. The true/false statement "It's raining in Paris" does not exist only in Paris, it is true (or false) no matter where you are. Therefore, "this" or "that" do not refer to physical location in this case.

In general, when you are referring to a statement or fact which you yourself made (particularly if it was just recently said), "this" is used to indicate that you are referring to your own (recent) statement. When referring to something someone else said, or something that was said some time ago, "that" is usually used instead.

However, this is not a hard rule, and people do often use them somewhat interchangeably, so really in most cases either one can be used and it does not sound particularly unnatural.

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  • The question asked is, "Sitting in Berlin" can we say "It's raining in Paris, This is why nobody is sunbathing now."
    – James Mathai
    Commented Oct 30 at 22:35
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    @JamesMathai - As Foogod rightly says, we can use this to refer back to whole clauses and sentences and to previous parts of a text. This highlights the information referred to much more strongly than it. Writers often use _this when a point or idea is to become an important part of the discussion that follows.
    – Michael Harvey
    Commented Oct 30 at 23:03

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