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Can I write this sentence:

He said Carter had better not entangle the US in problems like those in Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq.

Like this:

He said Carter had better to not entangle the US in problems like those in Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq.

?

If so, what's the difference between the meaning of both sentence?

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You cannot rewrite as you suggest.

The expression had better works like the modal verbs can, may, must, shall, will—it always takes a bare infinitive as its complement, not an infinitive marked with to.

It may help you to think of had better as equivalent to should:

okCarter should not entangle the US in problems.
Carter should to not entangle the US in problems.

okCarter had better not entangle the US in problems.
Carter had better to not entangle the US in problems.

*marks an ungrammatical utterance

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