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Here is a sentence from a video game:

Many of these residents seem respectable to all appearances, but no sooner do they open their mouths than they reveal themselves to be evil brutes, shocking and rude, and more likely to murder you and bury you in their basements as to speak a civil word to you.

I don't understand the bold part. Oxford Dictionaries says as to can mean concerning, but I don't see how to use this meaning in my sentence.

The official Russian translation of this piece sounds like they would sooner murder you and bury you in their basements than speak a civil word to you. Sometimes the translation is incorrect, so I can't be sure, but since that's the only thing I have here, I guess likely and as to make up a phrase that has the meaning of would sooner ... than. Is that correct?

Also, would it be correct to substitute as to with than in this case?

Many of these residents seem respectable to all appearances, but no sooner do they open their mouths than they reveal themselves to be evil brutes, shocking and rude, and more likely to murder you and bury you in their basements than speak a civil word to you.

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You're regarding "as to" as a coherent structure in this sentence.  It isn't. 

One common structure that is frequently called a correlative conjunction is "as ... as".  We can paraphrase the relevant section of your example using that common correlative: 

[They are] as likely to murder you and bury you in their basement as to speak a civil word to you. 

However, this isn't the right correlation for the author's intent.  The "as ... as" sets the two correlated things as equally likely.  The author intends to express that the first item is more likely than the second. 

[They are] more likely to murder you and bury you in their basement as to speak a civil word to you. 

That is the author's phrasing.  It seems that he has simply substituted "more" for the first "as" in the correlative. 

It's a sensible substitution, but I'm not accustomed to seeing a "more ... as" correlative.  I'm far more accustomed to seeing "more ... than" constructions: 

[They are] more likely to murder you and bury you in their basement than to speak a civil word to you. 

Your proposed paraphrasing was fairly close to right.  However, "as to" is not a coherent structure in this sentence.  The "to" belongs to an infinitive phrase. 

There are two parallel infinitive phrases:  "to murder you and bury you in their basement" and "to speak a civil word to you".  Since they are parallel, the second "to" is optional.  That's the reason your substitution seemed to make sense.  You replaced both the word that afforded replacement and an unrelated optional word.

The parallel between "they are more likely to do something" and "they would sooner do something" should also be obvious.  If your official Russian translation suggests that 

They are more likely to murder you and bury you in their basement than to speak a civil word to you. 

and 

They would sooner murder you and bury you in their basement than speak a civil word to you. 

express the same sentiment, I find that I have to agree.

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