In 1966 all of the US currency was withdrawn from Vietnam and our government printed Military Payment Certificates.
How did he know and how did Bulldog know? I guess he would have just figured that if I went then Ted would go also. I had always been amazed how some of these guys know about everything that goes on. I guess it is good to not be surprised.
As I walked over to Operations I saw my favorite C-54 crew chief.
-- Once We Were Aces by Steve Campbell
I heard that the alarm post near the sea had been quickly broken and the tsunami warning couldn't be heard. I guess he would have tried to pick up the glass broken by the earthquake. His body lay face up on the floor in the middle of the kitchen, wearing work gloves in his hands and a pair of trainers, the usual clothes that he used to wear when he went for a walk. On the day I found his body, I immediately went to the fire station and asked them to take his body out from the house. However, they didn't come.
-- The Great East Japan Earthquake The life given to me again by Ekuyo Abe
"Who is that guy?" Aaron looked at the time. It was almost midday.
"A friend of Andrew's. All I know is that he trained with the SAS and owes Andrew some kind of favour," Scott said. "I don't like to question him too much."
"I can understand that. I thought he was going to kill me."
Scott chuckled. "I guess he would have looked pretty scary. But you can trust him, Aaron. Just make sure you jump when he says jump and don't move till he gives the all-clear."
-- Operation Alpha Papa by D. J. Stutley
The first two excerpts were written in the past tense. Why did the writers use the present tense form of "guess"? Because the reference time changed to the speech time as the writers was writing it? Seems to me it was not very likely. However, I think it is the case for the third excerpt as the guess is included in the direct speech.
If these uses of "guess" are conventional, then why use "would + perfect infinitive" constructions in the subordinate clauses? I can't find any counterfactual or hypothetical elements implicit in the contexts. I would just use "I guess he figured/tried/looked" instead. What is the contribution of the "would + perfect infinitive" constructions to the semantics of these examples (if it is not that of expressing counterfactuality)?