The conclusion is contrary to what you expected.
The conclusion is contrary to what you would expect.
The conclusion is contrary to what you would have expected.
Who would have expected such a counterintuitive conclusion?
In coloquial register, I would think Examples 2, 3 and 4 mean the same, right?
But in a more formal register, can I say that Example 2 refers to an present real expectation and Example 3 and 4 refer to a past real expectation?
Are there any implicit conditionals implied in Examples 2, 3 and 4? Say, if you were told or given some clue, you would expect such-and-such.. If it is true that there are any, then Examples 2, 3 and 4 refer to irrealis expectations, right?